Thesis Documentation & Maintenance
Learning Objectives
Document your thesis with appropriate detail for future reference
Establish review cadences for different thesis components
Update your thesis based on new evidence while avoiding bias
Track thesis changes and their rationale over time
Build sustainable systems for long-term thesis maintenance
Thesis Documents: Master thesis, assumption register, risk register, scenario tracker, invalidation checklist
Supporting Research: Notes by topic, source database, data dashboard
Position Records: Transactions, sizing rationale, P&L
Decision Records: Major decisions with rationale, updates with reasoning
Dated: Every document has creation/update date
Attributed: Sources cited, reasoning documented
Searchable: Organized filing, consistent naming
Complete: Captures what you believed and why
Honest: Doesn't sanitize past views
Recommended structure: Active, Reference, Research Notes, Reviews, Data, Archive
Continuous: Major news, alerts, price
Weekly: News summary, metric check, trigger review
Monthly: Thesis validity, assumption status, position sizing
Quarterly: Full thesis review, scenario update, risk register
Annually: Complete refresh, process evaluation
Weekly (15-30 min): News, triggers, metrics, position
Monthly (1-2 hours): Thesis validity, assumptions, scenarios, risks
Quarterly (4-8 hours): Comprehensive review, research update
Update triggers: Significant new evidence, invalidation trigger approached, material assumption change, major event, scheduled review
Don't update because: Price moved alone, want to feel better, someone disagreed
- Identify trigger
- Assess evidence
- Analyze impact on thesis components
- Propose changes
- Sanity check for bias
- Execute update
- Communicate
Check: Confirmation bias (seeking disconfirming?), recency bias (overweighting recent?), anchoring (stuck on original?), loss aversion (avoiding update because losing?), sunk cost (holding because of past investment?)
vX.Y format: X = major (significant changes), Y = minor (small updates)
Major: Thesis statement, conviction, stance changes
Minor: Assumption confidence, probability adjustment, risk update
Document each version: Date, trigger, changes, reasoning, position impact
Why: Learn from past, prevent revision, track accuracy
What: All versions, review docs, decision records
How: Archive before updating, never delete
Minimum (4-6 hours/month): Weekly 15-min, monthly 1-hour, quarterly 2-hour
Moderate (10-15 hours/month): Daily 15-min, weekly 1-hour, monthly 2-hour
Intensive (20+ hours/month): Daily 30-min, weekly deep dives, continuous
Weekly (5 min): Major news? Triggers? Position appropriate?
Monthly (30 min): Thesis valid? Why uncertain?
Quarterly (2 hours): One-page review, probability update
Alerts: Google Alerts, price alerts, calendar reminders
Tracking: Spreadsheets, simple database, cloud storage
Templates: Review checklists, thesis template
Log predictions with confidence, track outcomes, assess calibration
Were 70% predictions ~70% right? Over or underconfident?
What worked? What didn't? What to change?
Documentation and maintenance systems are only valuable if used. Start simple, build habits, then expand. Most who design elaborate systems abandon them; those who start simple and iterate succeed.
Build complete system: file structure, templates, review process, change tracking, first monthly review.
Time investment: 3-5 hours
1. XRP drops 25%, no news. Update thesis?
Answer: B - No; price alone doesn't change thesis validity
2. Thesis changes "cautious bullish" to "neutral" after regulatory setback. What version change?
Answer: B - Major version (v1.x → v2.x)
3. Reviewing thesis after XRP rose 50%. Feeling good. Check for:
Answer: B - Confirmation bias (gains reinforce, may ignore problems)
4. Limited time for research. Minimum approach:
Answer: B - Weekly quick check, monthly brief review, quarterly summary
5. Main purpose of preserving old thesis versions:
Answer: C - Learning from past decisions and preventing history revision
End of Lesson 18
Total words: ~4,800
Key Takeaways
Document everything that matters
- Dated, sourced, honest
Establish review cadences
- Weekly, monthly, quarterly
Update based on evidence
- Not emotion or price
Maintain version history
- Archive old versions, keep change log
Build sustainable systems
- Start simple, consistency over completeness ---