The

PUBLICLY VERIFIED PARTNERSHIPS:

- Partner: Republic of Palau (government, not central bank)
- Type: USD stablecoin (not CBDC)
- Status: Pilot
- Verification: Joint announcement, ongoing coverage

- Partner: Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan
- Type: True CBDC (Digital Ngultrum)
- Status: Development/pilot
- Verification: RMA confirmation, press coverage

- Partner: Central Bank of Montenegro
- Type: Euro-denominated (not true CBDC)
- Status: Pilot
- Verification: Joint announcement

- Partner: National Bank of Georgia
- Type: True CBDC (Digital Lari)
- Status: Pilot
- Verification: NBG confirmation

- Partner: Banco de la República
- Type: True CBDC
- Status: Early exploration
- Verification: Partnership confirmed

- Partner: HKMA (as program participant)
- Type: Multi-vendor participation (not exclusive)
- Status: Pilot participation completed
- Verification: Program documentation

CLAIMED BUT NOT PUBLICLY VERIFIED:

RIPPLE CLAIMS "10+" BUT PUBLICLY CONFIRMED: 6

- Not publicly announced
- Could be confidential engagements
- Could be early-stage conversations
- Could be exaggerated count

1. Confidential pilots (NDA)
2. Early explorations not yet public
3. Different definition of "partnership"
4. Counting conversations as partnerships
5. Inflated claims

WE CANNOT VERIFY WHAT'S NOT PUBLIC.
Analysis should focus on the 6 confirmed.

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CATEGORIZATION OF VERIFIED 6:

TRUE CBDC (Sovereign currency digitization):
├── Bhutan (Digital Ngultrum) ✓
├── Georgia (Digital Lari) ✓
└── Colombia (Colombian Peso) ✓
COUNT: 3

STABLECOIN/INFRASTRUCTURE (Not true CBDC):
├── Palau (USD stablecoin, no central bank)
└── Montenegro (Euro user, no sovereign currency)
COUNT: 2

PROGRAM PARTICIPATION (Not exclusive partnership):
└── Hong Kong (one of many participants)
COUNT: 1

- True CBDCs: 3
- Not-quite-CBDCs: 2
- Participations: 1
- Total verified: 6
- Claimed: 10+
- Unverified: 4+

STAGE ANALYSIS OF VERIFIED 6:

- None have reached production deployment

- Palau (piloting since 2022)
- Bhutan (piloting since 2022)
- Montenegro (piloting since 2023)
- Georgia (piloting since 2023)
- Colombia (piloting/exploring since 2023)

- Hong Kong (participation completed)

KEY INSIGHT:
0 of 6 verified partnerships have reached production.
All remain in pilot or earlier stages.
Longest-running (Palau, Bhutan) = 3+ years without production.

SCALE ANALYSIS:

POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT (>10M population):
└── Colombia (52M) - Only one

SMALL SCALE (<5M population):
├── Georgia (3.7M)
├── Montenegro (620K)
├── Bhutan (800K)
└── Palau (21K)

NOT APPLICABLE (Participation only):
└── Hong Kong

95% OF PARTNERSHIPS BY COUNT are micro-economies.
Only Colombia represents meaningful scale.

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COUNTING METHODOLOGY COMPARISON:

STRICT COUNT (Production CBDCs):
Criteria: Must be in production, must be true CBDC
Result: 0 partnerships

MODERATE COUNT (True CBDC engagements):
Criteria: Real central bank, sovereign currency, any stage
Result: 3 partnerships (Bhutan, Georgia, Colombia)

EXPANDED COUNT (All verified government engagements):
Criteria: Any government/central bank engagement
Result: 6 engagements

MARKETING COUNT (Per Ripple claims):
Criteria: Unknown (includes unverified)
Result: 10+ partnerships

THE VARIANCE:
Same partnerships, different criteria = 0 to 10+ count.
This is why precision matters.

FOR HONEST ANALYSIS, USE:

"VERIFIED CBDC-RELATED ENGAGEMENTS"

- True CBDCs (pilot stage): 3
- Stablecoin/Infrastructure: 2
- Program participation: 1
- Total verified: 6

- 0 in production
- 0 at meaningful scale (except Colombia in early stage)
- 4+ claimed but unverified

- Acknowledges real engagements
- Distinguishes types
- Notes stage accurately
- Doesn't inflate or deflate

- "10 central bank partnerships" (inflated)
- "Zero real partnerships" (deflated)
- Conflating stablecoins with CBDCs

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ANTHONY WELFARE BACKGROUND:

Role: Former Ripple VP & Managing Director, CBDC
Period: Led Ripple's CBDC efforts
Current: Founded Rebl Labs post-Ripple

THE QUOTE (2024/2025):

"The entire CBDC work was very important to
learn what the Central Banks wanted and how
the commercial banks are key, hence
Stablecoins as the main focus."

SOURCE: LinkedIn/public statements
```

INTERPRETATION OF WELFARE QUOTE:

1. CBDC work was primarily LEARNING exercise
2. Learned what central banks actually want
3. Learned commercial banks are critical
4. Result: Stablecoins became main focus

IMPLICATIONS:

• Not expected to be major revenue driver

• Value was market intelligence

• Informed stablecoin strategy (RLUSD)

• CBDC → Stablecoin transition intentional

• Based on learnings from partnerships

• Not just political environment

HONEST INTERPRETATION:
Even Ripple's own CBDC lead frames
these partnerships as learning
rather than business-building.
```

APPLYING WELFARE'S FRAMING:

- Don't expect significant CBDC revenue
- Value was strategic intelligence
- Stablecoins are actual priority

- Partnerships served R&D purpose
- Production may not have been goal
- Extended pilots make more sense

- Don't overweight CBDC in XRP thesis
- Focus on where Ripple is focusing
- RLUSD and ODL more relevant

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FACT-CHECK SUMMARY:

CLAIM: "10+ central bank partnerships"

- True CBDCs: 3 (Bhutan, Georgia, Colombia)
- Stablecoins: 2 (Palau, Montenegro)
- Participation: 1 (Hong Kong)

UNVERIFIED: 4+ claimed

PRODUCTION: 0 (none of verified have launched)

SCALE: 1 (only Colombia is meaningful scale)

HONEST COUNT:
"3 true CBDC partnerships in pilot stage,
2 stablecoin projects, 1 program participation,
0 in production, primarily small economies"

WHAT SHOULD GIVE PAUSE:

- 10+ claimed vs. 6 verified
- 4+ unverified for years

- Oldest partnerships still piloting
- No launch dates announced
- Extended timelines

- Stablecoins counted as CBDCs
- Participation counted as partnership
- Inflates apparent success

- 5 of 6 under 5M population
- Only Colombia is meaningful scale
- Pattern consistent

- 2025 de-emphasis of CBDC
- Welfare quote confirms learning focus
- Suggests expectations not met

CONTEXT MATTERS:
Not necessarily failure—but not the
success that "10 partnerships" implies.

---

Ripple's "10+ central bank partnerships" claim cannot be fully verified. Of the 6 confirmed engagements, only 3 are true CBDC projects (sovereign currency with real central bank). None have reached production after 3+ years. Former CBDC lead Anthony Welfare describes the work as learning for stablecoin strategy, not business-building. This framing—CBDC as R&D investment rather than revenue driver—should inform how investors weight these partnerships in XRP thesis.

---

Assignment: Create your own verified accounting of Ripple CBDC engagements.

Requirements:

• Partner name and type
• Announcement date and source
• True CBDC or not (with reasoning)
• Current stage
• Any production timeline mentioned

Then provide your recommended counting methodology and justified count.

Time investment: 1-2 hours

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1. How many Ripple CBDC engagements can be publicly verified?
A) 10+ B) 6 C) 3 D) 0

Correct Answer: B

2. How many verified partnerships are TRUE CBDCs (sovereign currency, real central bank)?
A) 10 B) 6 C) 3 D) 0

Correct Answer: C — Bhutan, Georgia, Colombia

3. How many verified partnerships have reached production?
A) 6 B) 3 C) 1 D) 0

Correct Answer: D

4. What does Anthony Welfare's quote suggest about CBDC strategy?
A) Major revenue driver
B) Learning exercise that informed stablecoin focus
C) Complete failure
D) More partnerships coming

Correct Answer: B

5. Most appropriate framing of CBDC partnerships for investment thesis?
A) Major bullish catalyst
B) R&D investment and learning, not revenue driver
C) Complete write-off
D) Primary value driver

Correct Answer: B

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End of Lesson 10 (~3,800 words)

Phase 2 Complete! Next: Phase 3 - Strategic Implications (Lessons 11-15)